How much revenue is your organic channel losing to AI search?
Four inputs. One number. A CEO-ready estimate of the annual organic revenue at risk as ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, and Google AI Overviews compress your click volume.
Built by Vijay Vasu — tracking this shift since May 2023, before the category had a name (original deck).
Four numbers. That is all.
If you do nothing
How the calculator works
Why 40% is the default decline
HubSpot reported a 58% organic decline on queries that trigger a Google AI Overview (HubSpot State of Marketing, 2026). Across blended organic portfolios (AI-Overview queries plus non-AI-Overview queries), 30–45% is the planning range most enterprise teams are now using. We default to 40% as a conservative midpoint.
Why conversion rates stay as-is
AI-referred traffic converts at similar rates to classic organic when brand is indexed in the AI model. The shrinkage is volume-side, not intent-side. Hold conversion steady and let the traffic input do the work.
What is NOT modeled
Brand search (navigational queries) is more durable than informational. Direct traffic compensates somewhat. Paid media can backfill but at rising CPCs. This calculator models the gross exposure, not the net after paid substitution.
Why this is a planning tool
Treat the output as the ceiling of exposure, not a forecast. Use it to size the problem and justify an investment decision. For the actual forecast, you need Share of Model measurement, Citation Frequency Rate baselines, and a 60-day observation window.
Questions CEOs ask about this number
Is this a forecast or an estimate?
An estimate of gross exposure. A forecast would require Share of Model measurement, Citation Frequency Rate baselines, competitor positioning data, and observed click-loss from your own GA4 + GSC. Use this calculator to size the problem. Use measurement to forecast it.
What if we do nothing?
The output is what the math says. In practice, the decline is not linear — informational queries hit first (sharpest drop in months 1–6), commercial queries lag but follow, brand queries are the most durable. Most enterprise teams see a compounding 3–6% monthly traffic loss on affected query surfaces, not a single 40% drop.
Can AI search reverse our decline?
Yes, if your brand becomes cited inside the AI models that are now the new discovery surface. The job moves from ranking on Google to being present in ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Claude, and Google AI Overviews. This is Generative Engine Optimization (GEO). It is measurable, it is executable, and it starts with a baseline.
How do we close the gap?
Three inputs: measurement (baseline Share of Model and Citation Frequency Rate), authority (entity consensus, AI-readable schema, content chunked for retrieval), and distribution (on-site AI optimization plus off-site citation building). Indexable deploys 10 AI SEO agents plus a forward-deployed strategist who sits on site with your team. See how.
Why trust these defaults?
HubSpot 2026 reporting (58% AI-Overview decline), Foundation Marketing's GEO Metrics research (2025), and our internal benchmarks from the 10 AI agents we run at indexableai.com. Adjust every slider to your own data. The defaults are starting points, not dogma.
You have the number. Now what?
If the number is big enough to matter, the next step is a 30-minute conversation. We will walk through your Share of Model baseline, show you where your brand is cited and where it is not, and map a 60-day path to close the gap.
Book a working session →